Recently, Antaike 2019 non-ferrous metal market report will be held in Beijing.

This market report will involve copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, cobalt, lithium, gold, silver, rare earth, tungsten, molybdenum, indium, bismuth, germanium, gallium 17 varieties.

The report shows that the fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals industry are still challenged by the international economic environment. Except for a few metals such as gold, copper and molybdenum, the vast majority of non-ferrous metals will face the challenge that consumption has reached a plateau.

Demand for bulk metals and minerals narrowed

Copper: Prices are cautiously optimistic, driven by tight supply.

The global economy is declining in resonance, the hedging effect of domestic economic stimulus policies is difficult to show quickly in a short period of time, and the main consumer industries such as real estate and automobiles are limited in driving demand.

About 570,000 tonnes of new copper production capacity was added globally in 2019, of which 250,000 tonnes were added net.

Environmental policies.

On the consumer side, copper demand remains weak.

Domestic refined copper consumption is expected to grow by about 3.0% in 2019, down about one percentage point from last year.

Copper prices are expected to break through $7,000 in the second quarter and reach $7,300 - $7,400, the highest level of the year, before falling again in the second half of the year.

Aluminum: low price range shock possibility.

For the full year of 2019, demand growth is expected to further narrow to 1%.

On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum is under the compliance capacity "ceiling", "capacity expansion" is transformed to "regional transfer", and at the same time, part of the shut down capacity is transformed into effective capacity, and the domestic supply pressure has an increasing trend.

The gap is expected to narrow as new capacity is put on the market abroad.

Electrolytic aluminum costs are expected to further decline, aluminum price support weakened.

2019 aluminum price trend is not optimistic, it is expected that the focus of domestic and foreign prices will move down, the annual fluctuation range is 13200-14500 yuan/ton and 1750-2200 US dollars/ton.

Adequate supply of ternary battery materials

Nickel: Supply gap narrowing, price center of gravity to move down.

In 2018, China produced 695,000 tons of primary nickel and consumed 1.16 million tons, including 53,000 tons of nickel for battery industry and 963,000 tons for stainless steel.

In 2019, China's primary nickel production is expected to reach 750,000 tons, with consumption of 1.2 million tons.

As the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2019 no longer emphasizes the relationship between energy density and subsidies, the high nickel process may slow down in the short term.

The consumption growth of primary nickel in stainless steel field is weak.

Power battery is the hope of nickel consumption growth in the future, but it is difficult to fundamentally change the nickel supply and demand pattern due to the small base and the great influence of policy.

In 2019, the nickel price fluctuated between US $10,000 - US $15,000 / ton.

Cobalt: Ample supply, prices rise and fall.

At present, cobalt price is at a historical low price. It is expected that with the recovery of demand in April and May, the price is expected to bottom out and rebound periodically. However, in 2019, sufficient supply of raw materials will restrain the rebound, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12-26 USD/lb throughout the year.

Li: long-term good trend unchanged, recent return to rationality.

In 2018, affected by policy, supply and demand and market environment, lithium prices fell sharply.

In 2019, the global production will be further increased, and the lithium market will show periodic oversupply.

China's lithium consumption is expected to reach 164,900 tons in 2019 and 189,600 tons in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 15%.

The lithium price will fluctuate between the strong supply of lithium ore and the cost control of downstream material manufacturers. It is expected that in 2019, there will not be a sharp rise and fall as in previous years, and the average price will be between 75-80,000 yuan/ton.

Before 2020, the global supply and demand of lithium salt will reach a new balance, and the price will reasonably return to 90,000 yuan/ton, and the industry will continue to develop well.

Small metal prices in advance

Rare earth: the overall interval shock, light and heavy rare earth trend differentiation.

In 2019, due to the uncertain supply prospects of Myanmar's ion mines, market worries intensified, and the prices of medium and heavy rare earths rose, while the prices of light rare earths continued to fall, resulting in a divergence in the prices of light and heavy rare earths.

If the import of mines from Myanmar is interrupted and domestic ion mines cannot be restarted, the prices of medium and heavy rare earth elements will rise further.

Tungsten: demand increased slightly, tungsten prices have support.

In 2019, the mining quota policy will remain unchanged and environmental protection will not be relaxed. Domestic tungsten concentrate output will not increase significantly, which is estimated to be about 73,000 tons and global output is about 90,200 tons.

China's tungsten consumption is expected to grow to 51,000 tons in 2019 and global consumption to 95,000 tons by 3.6 percent as cemented carbide production increases.

Overall, the global tungsten supply is stable, the demand increases slightly, to the tungsten price forms the support.

In 2019, the average price of domestic tungsten concentrate is expected to be 100,000 yuan/ton, and APT price is 160,000 yuan/ton.

Molybdenum: supply gap, the price rose slightly.

According to the construction project, the global molybdenum production in 2019 is 268,500 tons molybdenum, a year-on-year growth of 1.2%;

China produced about 95,000 tons of molybdenum, up 3.7 percent.

Global molybdenum demand growth is expected to reach 3.5% in 2019.

The domestic real estate industry will be the main driving force for molybdenum consumption. It is expected that the domestic molybdenum demand will increase by about 3% in 2019.

In 2019, there may be a supply gap in the global molybdenum market. The average price of molybdenum oxide in the international market is expected to be $12.6 / lb molybdenum, up 5.63% year on year.

The domestic average price of molybdenum concentrate in 1810 yuan/ton, an increase of about 5%.

Indium: production and elimination of two suitable prosperous, indium prices suppressed inventory.

From 2019 to 2020, the consumption of refined indium will maintain a steady growth, the production will be in a state of fluctuation due to environmental protection and low market price, and the changes in the supply side will promote the supply-demand relationship to improve slowly. However, the market will still face pressure and challenges from historical inventory, and the indium price is difficult to achieve a breakthrough performance.

Bismuth: Oversupply is easing, but tepid demand is still depressing prices.

The bismuth market is at its lowest level in recent years due to a combination of weak demand, declining activity in the long-order lock-in market, and increased production.

Under the background of the domestic economic downturn and the high uncertainty of the global economy, the growth of bismuth consumption is also difficult. The domestic bismuth oversupply is expected to reduce in 2019-2020, but it still puts great pressure on bismuth price.

Germanium: good supply and demand relationship, the price into the comfort zone of the industrial chain.

Under the background of the global production capacity release of optical fiber prefabricated rods, germanium market has maintained rapid consumption growth for two consecutive years, which is fully reflected in the price trend of germanium.

Supply end due to the global zinc concentrate production promotion, by-product germanium, 2019 annual production capacity will further release, excess supply will continue, but for the limited resources of germanium, excess are still in a reasonable scope, and with germanium industry value to the middle and lower reaches of extension and transfer, perfecting Chinese germanium industry, proportion of high-end products, the value of germanium outlook still immeasurably.

Gallium: medium - term optimism, near - term challenges.

In the past year, domestic gallium production enterprises rationally faced the market and prices, and flexibly controlled production to ensure low inventory and avoid a large number of excess.

Consumption grew significantly thanks to the rapid expansion of the LED industry and the price of gallium rose in the first half of the year.

In 2019, the gallium industry will still face new difficulties such as falling demand and low prices. However, positive factors such as accelerated 5G coverage and emerging LED terminals have also given the market new uncertainties, presenting both challenges and opportunities.

Precious metals need to focus on risk points

Gold: Macro risk warms gold sentiment.

International political, geopolitical, financial, social and other unstable risk factors will continue to increase the volatility and rebound of the international gold price.

It is expected that the future international gold prices will generally maintain the bottom of the upward shock pattern.

If no major emergencies occur, it is expected that the main fluctuation range of international gold price in 2019 will be between $1260-$1400 / ounce, and the average price will be around $1330 / ounce.

In the past decade, the total supply and demand of the world gold market have been basically stable, and the gap of domestic gold supply has been expanding in the near future.

At the same time, with the continuous advancement of the national "One Belt And One Road" initiative and the recent increase of industrial mergers and acquisitions and strategic restructuring by international gold mining companies, the world gold industry pattern has undergone a major adjustment, which brings new opportunities to China's overseas gold mining investment.

Silver: Range choppy, higher bottom.

In 2018, domestic silver production increased by 6% year on year to 19,481 tons, and the concentration of production further increased, with three enterprises producing more than 1,000 tons per year.

External dependence of production was 43%.

Consumption fell 2% year on year to 6,544 tonnes, led by declines in silver for decorative products and solar panels.

Inventories remained high throughout the year.

Domestic silver production is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 20,500 tonnes in 2019, while consumption is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year to 6,748 tonnes.

Silver is expected to average $16.30 an ounce in 2019.

Another analysis suggests that the newly launched VAT reform will further release the demand of non-ferrous metal industry. The better the supply and demand situation, the stronger the bargaining power and the lower the price elasticity of demand, the more benefits the industrial chain links will have.